VECW

Conflicts and wars in the 21st century.
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hammurabi70
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VECW

Post by hammurabi70 »

VECW = Very European Civil War

As the strains on the European Union and the fringe countries not in the EU ratchet up can anyone sketch the fault lines of how such violence might develop and what the different sides might be?
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granty101
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Re: VECW

Post by granty101 »

hammurabi70 wrote: 21 Apr 2020, 22:04 VECW = Very European Civil War
Do you have a set time frame/period in mind? i.e. Basque parliament 'breakaway from Spain' talks and the violent clashes it stirred up, or the Brexit vote and the way it split Britain, and caused concern for other European leaders, etc

I have loads of ideas ;)

Grant
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hammurabi70
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Re: VECW

Post by hammurabi70 »

granty101 wrote: 22 Apr 2020, 04:34
hammurabi70 wrote: 21 Apr 2020, 22:04 VECW = Very European Civil War
Do you have a set time frame/period in mind? i.e. Basque parliament 'breakaway from Spain' talks and the violent clashes it stirred up, or the Brexit vote and the way it split Britain, and caused concern for other European leaders, etc
A somewhat sensitive subject! I do not want to encourage violence in Europe but I agree that there are a number of fissures in the political landscape. I was not thinking of any particular time frame other than the current period. Evidently there are both national and regional factions across the whole of Europe but I am not sure how a pan-European breakdown would unravel. Warfare between the nation states would be hugely difficult for a politician to garner support for but left-right political differences across Europe, plus the rising strength of regional groups, are more likely to cause flash points in the political fabric. I am not sure how you would make a ‘European Civil War’ ‘manageable’ in a club context.

Apart from the Basques and Catalans in Spain, Belgium has a big Flemish and Walloon divide, Italy has the Northern League and the Hungarians and Poles seem to be lurching towards a more autocratic right-wing, which might be the way National Rally in France would like to proceed. If the tension ratchets up to breaking point how would it break for wargaming purposes?
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granty101
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Re: VECW

Post by granty101 »

hammurabi70 wrote: 23 Apr 2020, 10:31 I do not want to encourage violence in Europe but I agree that there are a number of fissures in the political landscape.
Now your original question/query/thought can be interpreted as both 'what if' and 'what might be' scenarios, currently based upon the political situation in Europe.

To give an example of what I mean, (and I'm not trying to promote any pro or anti Europe preference here, just trying to offer ideas), we can take the Polish situation as our 'starting point'. Poland is a member of the European Union, but does not allow Muslim immigration/settlement, in it's borders.

A 'what if' situation might be that Germany, urged by the rise of far-right groups, start to 'push' immigrants towards Poland. Poland then strengthens it's borders to stop this 'influx/invasion', and violence erupts when armed border guards fire on these civilians. Germany, and the EU are naturally outraged, and they send an 'armed response' force to the flashpoint. Tensions get out of hand, and we then have NATO and EU allies 'turning' on each other.

The 'what might be' scenario comes from the fact that immigration, (whether we like it or not), is the current hot topic in Europe, and some countries like Hungary and Poland, blatantly refuse to allow settlement by 'economic' refugees. Poland, (and I'm speaking hypothetically here), takes the step of withdrawing from the EU. It never adopted the Euro as its currency, (similar to the UK retaining Pound Sterling), so doesn't see any problems in withdrawing from a 'currency union' that it isn't in. Poland now sits alone and is making its own free trade deals with other countries, much to the annoyance of certain EU bureaucrats, (whom I won't name, as they are real people ;) ). These EU bureaucrats try to impose sanctions against Poland in the form of 'hiked' import and export duties. Poland decides enough is enough, and severs all oil and natural gas supplies coming from Russia via pipelines, into Western Europe. Germany industrialists pressure their government, and by default, the EU, into taking action. A 'limited' military operation is planned to seize the oil and gas pipeline pumping stations, and resume energy supplies. Incensed by this 'armed invasion' of it's territory, Poland launches an all out offensive against Germany. (As both are still 'technically' NATO allies, both call upon NATO for assistance).

So the question is, (for a gamer), how far do you take these scenarios without getting too political?
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hammurabi70
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Re: VECW

Post by hammurabi70 »

granty101 wrote: 24 Apr 2020, 07:04
So the question is, (for a gamer), how far do you take these scenarios without getting too political?
You have suggested some great 'what if’ situations for contemplation. I was interested in what people might have to suggest. Many years ago the club I attended had ‘wine-lake wars’ between Italy and France involving raiding wine vats to reduce the glut of wine then available on the EU market.
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granty101
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Re: VECW

Post by granty101 »

hammurabi70 wrote: 25 Apr 2020, 14:16 Many years ago the club I attended had ‘wine-lake wars’ between Italy and France involving raiding wine vats to reduce the glut of wine then available on the EU market.
Perhaps you could do a modern take on the 'cod wars' of the 1970's. You could maybe have the Norwegians facing off to the British in the North Sea, and then throw a few Russian factory fishing ships into the mix. These ships then get between both navies, which then in turn risks an escalation of hostilities with the Russian navy getting involved as a 'protector' to these factory ships? (And as we all know from recent Middle Eastern hostilities, a certain Russian President likes to get involved with things that don't concern him!!)

Or maybe you could have an Italian Alpini division defending a 'butter mountain' from Austrian Gebirgsjäger!! (Okay, that one is a bit silly :lol: ).

But if you consider the recent turbulence in the financial markets, what about a three pronged attack on Switzerland? The premise is that the Swiss banks have tons of hidden gold reserves, so the Germans, French and Italians launch a three pronged attacked onto this neutral nation, who then askes for military assistance, and gets it from the other neutral country (Austrian), and also from Russia. (Who again likes to 'poke an oar in' but also sees a chance of taking some of these (alleged) gold reserves). Maybe you could throw in support from Israel, (via a long range air raid onto German, Italian and French airfields or troop deployment areas), as the Israeli government seem to think that the Germans are once again after Jewish gold stolen from Jews during the Holocaust years?

Just some more thoughts for you to ponder over,

Grant

P.S. The Israeli planes would be flying one way and hopefully land in a 'friendly' Great Britain, where they would be 'interned' for the duration of hostilities...or maybe and American carrier group is on 'exercise' in the Bay Of Biscay, and they head for that safe landing zone?
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ianrs54
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Re: VECW

Post by ianrs54 »

There is a Larry Bond novel (I think Caldron) that covers this.
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granty101
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Re: VECW

Post by granty101 »

ianrs54 wrote: 28 Apr 2020, 15:17 There is a Larry Bond novel (I think Caldron) that covers this.
I do like a good 'what if' or alternative history scenario.

Grant
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